Thoughts on this September 11th

Yes, we’re in the middle of a pretty heated Presidential election campaign.  Yes, the campaign has become quite divisive where the lines between the truth and the not-so-truth have become blurred.  Yes, there are a lot of things a blog like this could write about today – but it won’t.  Today is the 11th anniversary of one of the most game-changing days in the modern history of the United States.  Today is September 11th.  So, today is not the day for bitter party

divisions and arguments over health care reform, tax returns and where

someone was born.  Today is a day to remember the almost 3000 people

that needlessly lost their lives, unbeknownst to them that this particular morning as they left for work and said goodbye to their family, they would be doing that for the last time.

I won’t spend much time on the attack themselves, we all remember

them, watching them in most cases unfolding live on TV (I was on my

couch in a small apartment near Dallas, TX starting my 2nd year of

grad school watching it all).  The day unfolded like this:

•       8:46 am:  American Airlines Flight 11 crashed into the north tower

         of the World Trade Center

•       9:03 am:  United Airlines Flight 175 crashed into the south tower of

         the World Trade Center

•       9:37 am:  American Airlines Flight 77 crashed into the Pentagon

•       9:58 am:  The south tower of the World Trade Center Collapsed

•       10:03 am:  United Airlines Flight 93 crashed into a field in Shanksville, PA

•       10:28 am:  The north tower of the World Trade Center Collapsed

The United States changed that day – for the first time in modern history the people actually felt vulnerable, felt that the US was no longer this fortress that could repel anything.  Terrorism didn’t happen here – it was something that happened ‘over there’ in Europe, in Israel, wherever.  But now it could and it did happen here – America was no longer impervious, or so it seemed.  These attacks launched the modern security apparatus in this country – giving birth

to the Department of Homeland Security, the Transportation Security

Administration (the TSA) and other such things.  This day also launched two long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the latter of which is still being fought some 11 years later where thousands more died.

It did have other interesting effects on this country – it brought people together.  I remember the days after the attack the difference in the spirit of the people I came across; nice, accommodating, brotherly.  I’m sure we all remember that.  We also all remember that from that day and for many more after that, we all felt a little uneasy but knew that while we got kicked around, it wasn’t over.

America also learned who her friends were; countries like Canada.  No discussion about 9/11 can happen without noting the actions of Canada.

In the moments after US airspace shut down, Canada took hundreds of

planes bound for the US.  Not only did the Canadians provide safe harbor but hundreds of stories abound of the generous hospitality and accommodations of the northern neighbor, hosting those bound for the US until the airspace opened some days later.

I’ll never forget that day and the feelings I had and the eeriness of the few days following the attacks – how quiet everything was.  How shell-shocked everyone was.  I lived on the flight path for DFW airport – one of the busiest airports in the United States.  I remember sitting in front of my apartment with my neighbor and remarking how no planes were overhead (when we usually saw one every 10 minutes or so) and how surreal it felt knowing the reason why.  I could go on and on but I only have so much bandwith.

Needless to say, September 11, 2001 will be a day no one ever forgets

– and quite frankly no one should.  Not because it happened to the United States but because something like this can happen again.  It can happen anytime and anywhere and we all (all as in the citizens of the world) need to be vigilant and reject extremism and irrationality in all its forms and from every place.

That’s it – that’s my soapbox thoughts about this.  Tomorrow we go back to the ‘bloodsport’ that is the Presidential campaign and be happy that 11 years after the attack we can talk about an election campaign.  That while a lot of things have changed, a lot of things have also remained the same.  Thank God.

Romney Campaign: Don’t Panic But, Maybe, you Should Keep that Resume Updated

So the Romney campaign put a memo out earlier today urging it’s people not to panic, everything is fine and their boys R&R and going to bring it home in November.  Memo’s like these usually signify that the campaign is, in fact, panicking.  The memo:

ROMNEY/RYAN

MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

RE: State of the Race

DATE: September 10, 2012

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling.  While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high 

from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly.  The reality 

of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and 

Mitt Romney will win this race.

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of 

Americans unemployed or underemployed.  But his convention speech was not the only big 

letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week.

The latest CNN / ORC polls show Obama up at 52% over Romney’s 46%.  Obama’s likeability is up to 57%, the highest it’s been in over two years and 59% of Democrats are excited to go vote as opposed to 47% of Republicans (those ‘excitability’ numbers last week were 52% for the Democrats and 62% for the GOP.)

The memo is attributing the polling numbers to a ‘sugar high’ felt by the country after the DNC and that the dismal performance by the President with his speech, as well as a bad jobs report tempered this bump.  So, jobs report was bad (and yes, it was) and his speech wasn’t that good but still Obama leads in the polls has increased by 6 points since the bad speech and the bad job numbers.  Is the bad speech and bad numbers part of the sugar high?  Did people ignore the bad stuff and still get high?  Shouldn’t the bump be significantly lower based on what the memo is saying, or are we just confused? 

A good rule in life is always, if someone tells you not to worry, you should.  If we were Romney campaign staffers, this memo wouldn’t be giving us the warm and fuzzies.  But that’s just us.

Larry Flint: Mitt, Show us Your Tax Returns. Romney: Why Won’t This Go Away?

The illustrious publisher of Hustler Larry Flint (also known as ‘the smut peddler who cares’) is looking to give up to $1 million dollars to one lucky person, and it could be you, if you have information about what Mitt Romney is hiding in his tax returns.   In a full page advertisement taken out in this past Sunday’s Washington Post, Flint and Hustler Magazine are offering money for  “…information about Mitt Romney’s unreleased tax returns and / or details of his offshore assets, bank accounts and business partnerships.  What is he hiding?”

Courtesy:  Washington Post

Romney hasn’t released anything aside from his 2011 and 2010 tax returns and Flint wants to know what he’s got there.  Flint feels that all of this should be public record for a man running for the most public of offices.  Flint will be running the ad again on September 11^th in USA Today. 

This call from Flint comes only a few days after an alleged leak from the Tennessee offices of Romeny’s accountants, Price Waterhouse Cooper.  PwC of course disputes any leak occurred and that Romney’s and everyone else’s records are safe and secure.  RT.com reports that an encrypted file containing Romney’s tax information will be distributed to the media this month.  “The person allegedly in possession of the files… has said that they will provide the material to any source willing to pay $1,000,000,” including the Romney campaign.  The Secret Service has stated that they are in fact investigating the unverified claim of the leak and alleged blackmail.  It seems Flint is willing to pay if the information is good.

While this may turn out to be simply rumor, it remains one more example of how people still don’t feel they know Romney enough.  The fact that he is refusing to show tax returns prior to 2010 makes him look culpable of something in the eyes of America – something that is not helping his cause.  Looking at his poll numbers today, with as much as he has slipped, just the publicity surrounding this escapade could be enough to have him trail Obama even more.  It would behoove Romney to release a bit more information about himself so that people can move on from this issue at least.  If not, this will hang over his head until election day.

Help Us Raise the Funds We Need

 As a news source, I Need Politics has so far put together a small, regular audience.  We are trying our best to serve the needs of those that read us as well as attract new readers as well.  For this we need to expand and for an expansion, we need money.  We've put up a campaign on www.indiegogo.com/i-need-politics to try to raise the funds we need and we would really appreciate your help.  

The way Indiegogo works is, they have an algorithm called the 'go-go factor.'  The higher ones go-go factor, the more visible the campaign us - indiegogo advertises it on its own website and makes it visible to all kinds of potential investors.  To get this go-go factor up, people need to go to the campaign page and either 'like it' or 'follow it' or 'google plus' it - there are no Apps you will be forced to download and you do not need to have an account at Indiegogo.com.

At the end of it all, there are three ways you can help us:

1) Donations:  If you look at our campaign, for each level of donation (starting at $1) you receive a gift in return.   These gifts range from a pen at the $1 level all the way up to dinners, tours of Washington, DC and many other things at our highest $2500 level.  You can donate using Pay Pal or a credit or debit card.

2) Boosting our go-go factor:  Please visit the campaign site at www.indiegogo.com/i-need-politics and 'like it', 'follow it' or 'google plus' it.  The more people that do this, the more exposure this will receive on Indiegogo.  The more exposure it receives, the more people will see it and potentially donate some money.

3) Plug Us:  Please tell your friends and family about this.  Pass this information along on your facebook or twitter or any other social media you use.  Ask people to take a look at I Need Politics and the campaign at www.indiegogo.com/i-need-politics.  The more people that see it, the greater the chances we can raise what we need.

Thank you for your help and thank you for being a loyal reader.  We are really looking forward to providing you even more of the political analysis and reporting that you've come to expect from I Need Politics.

Post-Convention, Who’s Winning? Who Knows.

Round and round she goes, who will win, nobody knows

The convention season is over and neither candidate really has anything to show for it.  Romney got his 1% bounce in the polls but that was short lived as it got cancelled out by Obama’s 3% jump.  That jump was stifled by less than satisfactory jobs report that was released yesterday.  North Carolina, a state that was a Republican lock a few weeks ago now might be leaning Obama.  Ohio, a state that was leaning Obama is now leaning Romney.  After all is said and done neither candidate is any closer to claiming victory then they were three weeks ago.  So what’s a candidate to do?  Hit the campaign trail hard and start getting ready for the debates.

Obama spent yesterday stumping in New Hampshire then Iowa but went to bed last night in Florida.  Romney spent the day in Iowa with both candidates hitting those swing states hard.  The Romney camp has also released a set of ads based off of the conventions targeted at all the swing states but no tangible results from them have shown up in the polling numbers yet.

The debates are going to be crucial.  They are being held in the last few weeks of the campaign and have the opportunity to shape the undecided voters opinion.  Whether it will happen, given how this campaign has gone, is anyone’s guess.  The most probable scenario is that there will be a good number of voters on election day that will decide who to vote for in the voting both and hold their nose as they drop their ballots in the box.  Even Obama’s closest advisors feel that this campaign will go right down to the wire.

Both candidates only have a few more opportunities to get in their final digs.  By just comparing speaking style, Obama should have the debates in the bag but again, the way this campaign has been going, Romney may very well come out on top.  If after the debates the poll numbers come up within 3 points of each other, at that point the only definitive way to know who the winner will be is to wait until election night.

Barack Obama's 2012 DNC Acceptance Speech

For those that missed it last night - here are the words that Obama used to accept the Democratic Party nomination and outline his plan for the next four years.  The speech itself was good but no where near as strong as the one Bill Clinton delivered the night before - though this was better than his 2008 acceptance speech.

What to watch for today is the release of the official unemployment numbers for August in the next few hours.  Those numbers will be crucial to see what sort of polling bounce (if any) the Obama campaign gets out of their convention - the timing of their release ties both of these issue in completely.

Next major campaign activity:  the debates.

Obama's Speech Tonight - Sneak Peek

The Obama campaign has released a teaser of sorts in advanced of his speech tonight (which is at 10:00 eastern time by the way).  

President Barack Obama will lay out the presidential election as a stark choice in his speech to the Democratic National Convention. 

"The path we offer may be harder, but it leads to a better place. And I'm asking you to choose that future. I'm asking you to rally around a set of goals for your country - goals in manufacturing, energy, education, national security, and the deficit; a real, achievable plan that will lead to new jobs, more opportunity, and rebuild this economy on a stronger foundation.  That's what we can do in the next four years, and that's why I'm running for a second term as President of the United States."

Bill Clinton's Speech at the 2012 DNC

For those of you that missed it last night, here is the full version of Clinton's speech from the 2012 Democratic National Convention.  The speech was brilliant, probably the best that Clinton had ever delivered and took apart the Republican arguments for election one by one while at the same time convincing the American voter how much they needed Obama.  He delivered it in classic Bill fashion, complete with his light southern drawl and 'aw shucks' style.  At the end of it all, it felt more like 'comfort food' for the masses rather than a firebrand political speech and it's exactly what the Obama campaign needed.

Enjoy all 48 minutes of it

So Where's that post-RNC Bounce? Guess it's More of a Roll?

All candidates expect a boost in the polls after their conventions and
based on the latest CNN / ORC poll released yesterday, Romney got his
after the RNC.  He’s polling at 48%... up from 47% before the convention.  A one point bounce that leaves him tied with the Obama campaign as the DNC now gets underway.   So where does that leave Romney with about
two months left in the campaign?  In a bad place. He missed what should have been solid bounce in the polls, and this is the second one he’s missed at that.  Most candidates get a small uptick when they announce their running mate and there wasn’t one when Ryan was introduced.  So what happened?  Frankly it’s the perpetual problem that the Romney campaign has had over and over again, their message doesn’t seem to want to stick.  Not that it’s a bad message but it keeps getting overshadowed by one thing or another.  The culprit this time?  Clint Eastwood.

Of all the speakers at the RNC, Romney was preceded most notably by Dirty Harry himself.  This man is the personification of America – or at least that perception.  He’s a tough, no BS, take on problems head on, people making his day and getting them off his lawn and whatever doesn’t get fixed, well, just shoot it kind of guy.  He walked out and the crowd went wild.  Then he started to speak.  To an empty chair.  Pretending to have a conversation with
Obama.  What people wanted to hear was a rousing speech from a tough
guy.  What people got were the rantings of a confused old man.  So what did the media talk about the next day?  Not Romney’s speech where he outlined his plan, displayed his strategy and explained his mode of attack.  No, the media was talking about Eastwood and his thing with the chair.

Romeny’s speech was actually alright.  Not spectacular but quite honestly, it was better than I and many others were expecting.  It was good enough to pull a 3 to 5 point bounce and if his strategists actually figured out how to run a campaign it could have been his turning point.  That never materialized because the next day all the media could talk about was Eastwood and his chair.  In 2008, McCain pulled up a 5.5 point increase in the polls following the convention.  Granted it didn’t last but it gave his campaign some momentum.  Even Walter Mondale had a bounce in 1984 after that DNC but we all know how that ended.  The graph below shows what sort of bounce each candidate had after their conventions in 2008.  Take this data and compare it to Romney's one point bump:

Before each of the conventions in 2008

After the DNC in 2008 - note a 3.5 point jump for Obama

After the RNC in 2008 - note a 5.5 point jump for McCain from his low after the DNC

Obama should expect a solid bounce after this week and the DNC.  I say
should because the August job numbers are being released this Friday.
If there is an improvement, Obama will see at least a 5 point jump, if
not more.  If the job numbers aren’t good, there will be nothing.  Also, tonight we have Bill Clinton – a man whose popularity transcends party lines it seems lately.  While he’s essentially speaking on behalf of Obama, he’s also looking out for his interests and laying the foundation for Hilary 2016.  This is not to say that he will throw the speech to help his wife. Quite the contrary, he’s 100% behind the President and that will show in the poll numbers come Friday.  Intentions notwithstanding, Clinton will bring in the vote, especially if his message focuses on the economy and takes a “we’re all going to be alright” tone, which quite frankly is his forte.  Obama’s bounce isn’t guaranteed but there’s a good probability for it and if it does happen, it’ll be large.  Sustainable?  That’s a different question.

Romney’s bounce should have been stronger but for the speech of Clint
Eastwood.  The next major potential game-changers are the debates and
those aren’t for a few more weeks however, bounces from those tend to stick. Those will be one of the last good chances that the Romney campaign will have to pull ahead.  Hopefully his campaign people see that too, for his sake.

November 7, 2012: The Start of the 2016 Campaign

No matter what the outcome on November 6, there is only one certainty.  This is Barack Obama’s final campaign.  As the Democrats assemble in Charlotte this week, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that there will be a number of party members that will be laying the seeds for their own campaign four years down the road – a campaign which might start as early as November 7^th. 

There will be some obvious contenders but looking at the Democratic bench, it simply doesn’t have the depth that the Republican one has.  There are no stand-out rising stars which, quite frankly does not bode well for the party in 2016.  There needs to be a nominee, of course and we here at I Need Politics feel that it could be anyone of the following:

Credit:  humanevents.com

Joe Biden:  As the Vice President, he is an obvious choice to run for the nomination.  He’s had Presidential aspirations since 1998 but he has a reputation of acting less than Presidential.  While those that support him love that he speaks from the heart and shoots fro the hip, this will be a liability overall.  Given that he’s already in the White House however, the chances of him securing the nomination are almost a lock.

Credit:  Daily Telegraph (UK)

Hilary Clinton:  Another obvious contender though she has not officially stated that she plans to run in 2016.  Clinton gave Obama a run for his money in 2008 and she was looking as good to win as he was.  She plans to step down as Secretary of State within the next year, which would leave her open to prepare for a 2016 run.  If anyone can take it away from Biden, it’ll be Clinton.

Courtesy:  Baltimore Sun

Martin O’Malley:  Currently the Governor of Maryland and the former Mayor of Baltimore, O’Malley has not been secretive of his Presidential aspirations.  He’s a moderate and a sort of rising star.  Expect him to throw his hat in the ring.

Courtesy:  Wikipedia

Andrew Cuomo:  Succeeding his father Mario at being the Governor of New York, Cuomo is expected to make a run as well.  He was secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Clinton Administration and the Attorney General of New York State.  He comes from a political family, married into the Kennedy’s and is familiar with Washington.

Courtesy:  Politico

Mark Warner:  Currently the junior Senator from Virginia, he is the former Governor of that state.  He’s a moderate Democrat that can have the appearance of a southerner if needed.  He could have some electability on the national stage of he breaks through during the primary season.

Courtesy:  Dallas Morning News

Julian Castro:  This is the closest thing the Democrats have to a Marco Rubio in their party.  He is the young Mayor of San Antonio, TX, a Harvard educated Hispanic lawyer that is incredibly popular there.  What’s going to help Castro’s rising star is that he is giving the Keynote address at the DNC this week – the same slot that Obama had in 2004.  If he knocks it out of the park, his name will be all over the media.  He might not be politically strong enough to slog him through campaign machines like those of Biden or Clinton, but then again, he might if he can nationalize the popularity he has in southern Texas.

This is not to say that these are the only people that can potentially be the Democratic nominee in 2016.  One never knows who can crop up after the election, during the midterms in 2014 or afterwards.  No one really had heard of Bill Clinton in 1989 or of Barack Obama in 2003 and for all anyone knows, some dark horse could emerge that the last moment.  It will be interesting to watch how things unfold, especially who ill begin to position themselves soon after the next election.