So Where's that post-RNC Bounce? Guess it's More of a Roll?

All candidates expect a boost in the polls after their conventions and
based on the latest CNN / ORC poll released yesterday, Romney got his
after the RNC.  He’s polling at 48%... up from 47% before the convention.  A one point bounce that leaves him tied with the Obama campaign as the DNC now gets underway.   So where does that leave Romney with about
two months left in the campaign?  In a bad place. He missed what should have been solid bounce in the polls, and this is the second one he’s missed at that.  Most candidates get a small uptick when they announce their running mate and there wasn’t one when Ryan was introduced.  So what happened?  Frankly it’s the perpetual problem that the Romney campaign has had over and over again, their message doesn’t seem to want to stick.  Not that it’s a bad message but it keeps getting overshadowed by one thing or another.  The culprit this time?  Clint Eastwood.

Of all the speakers at the RNC, Romney was preceded most notably by Dirty Harry himself.  This man is the personification of America – or at least that perception.  He’s a tough, no BS, take on problems head on, people making his day and getting them off his lawn and whatever doesn’t get fixed, well, just shoot it kind of guy.  He walked out and the crowd went wild.  Then he started to speak.  To an empty chair.  Pretending to have a conversation with
Obama.  What people wanted to hear was a rousing speech from a tough
guy.  What people got were the rantings of a confused old man.  So what did the media talk about the next day?  Not Romney’s speech where he outlined his plan, displayed his strategy and explained his mode of attack.  No, the media was talking about Eastwood and his thing with the chair.

Romeny’s speech was actually alright.  Not spectacular but quite honestly, it was better than I and many others were expecting.  It was good enough to pull a 3 to 5 point bounce and if his strategists actually figured out how to run a campaign it could have been his turning point.  That never materialized because the next day all the media could talk about was Eastwood and his chair.  In 2008, McCain pulled up a 5.5 point increase in the polls following the convention.  Granted it didn’t last but it gave his campaign some momentum.  Even Walter Mondale had a bounce in 1984 after that DNC but we all know how that ended.  The graph below shows what sort of bounce each candidate had after their conventions in 2008.  Take this data and compare it to Romney's one point bump:

Before each of the conventions in 2008

After the DNC in 2008 - note a 3.5 point jump for Obama

After the RNC in 2008 - note a 5.5 point jump for McCain from his low after the DNC

Obama should expect a solid bounce after this week and the DNC.  I say
should because the August job numbers are being released this Friday.
If there is an improvement, Obama will see at least a 5 point jump, if
not more.  If the job numbers aren’t good, there will be nothing.  Also, tonight we have Bill Clinton – a man whose popularity transcends party lines it seems lately.  While he’s essentially speaking on behalf of Obama, he’s also looking out for his interests and laying the foundation for Hilary 2016.  This is not to say that he will throw the speech to help his wife. Quite the contrary, he’s 100% behind the President and that will show in the poll numbers come Friday.  Intentions notwithstanding, Clinton will bring in the vote, especially if his message focuses on the economy and takes a “we’re all going to be alright” tone, which quite frankly is his forte.  Obama’s bounce isn’t guaranteed but there’s a good probability for it and if it does happen, it’ll be large.  Sustainable?  That’s a different question.

Romney’s bounce should have been stronger but for the speech of Clint
Eastwood.  The next major potential game-changers are the debates and
those aren’t for a few more weeks however, bounces from those tend to stick. Those will be one of the last good chances that the Romney campaign will have to pull ahead.  Hopefully his campaign people see that too, for his sake.