Saturday, September 8, 2012

Post-Convention, Who’s Winning? Who Knows.

Round and round she goes, who will win, nobody knows

The convention season is over and neither candidate really has anything to show for it.  Romney got his 1% bounce in the polls but that was short lived as it got cancelled out by Obama’s 3% jump.  That jump was stifled by less than satisfactory jobs report that was released yesterday.  North Carolina, a state that was a Republican lock a few weeks ago now might be leaning Obama.  Ohio, a state that was leaning Obama is now leaning Romney.  After all is said and done neither candidate is any closer to claiming victory then they were three weeks ago.  So what’s a candidate to do?  Hit the campaign trail hard and start getting ready for the debates.

Obama spent yesterday stumping in New Hampshire then Iowa but went to bed last night in Florida.  Romney spent the day in Iowa with both candidates hitting those swing states hard.  The Romney camp has also released a set of ads based off of the conventions targeted at all the swing states but no tangible results from them have shown up in the polling numbers yet.

The debates are going to be crucial.  They are being held in the last few weeks of the campaign and have the opportunity to shape the undecided voters opinion.  Whether it will happen, given how this campaign has gone, is anyone’s guess.  The most probable scenario is that there will be a good number of voters on election day that will decide who to vote for in the voting both and hold their nose as they drop their ballots in the box.  Even Obama’s closest advisors feel that this campaign will go right down to the wire.

Both candidates only have a few more opportunities to get in their final digs.  By just comparing speaking style, Obama should have the debates in the bag but again, the way this campaign has been going, Romney may very well come out on top.  If after the debates the poll numbers come up within 3 points of each other, at that point the only definitive way to know who the winner will be is to wait until election night.

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