So Where's that post-RNC Bounce? Guess it's More of a Roll?

All candidates expect a boost in the polls after their conventions and
based on the latest CNN / ORC poll released yesterday, Romney got his
after the RNC.  He’s polling at 48%... up from 47% before the convention.  A one point bounce that leaves him tied with the Obama campaign as the DNC now gets underway.   So where does that leave Romney with about
two months left in the campaign?  In a bad place. He missed what should have been solid bounce in the polls, and this is the second one he’s missed at that.  Most candidates get a small uptick when they announce their running mate and there wasn’t one when Ryan was introduced.  So what happened?  Frankly it’s the perpetual problem that the Romney campaign has had over and over again, their message doesn’t seem to want to stick.  Not that it’s a bad message but it keeps getting overshadowed by one thing or another.  The culprit this time?  Clint Eastwood.

Of all the speakers at the RNC, Romney was preceded most notably by Dirty Harry himself.  This man is the personification of America – or at least that perception.  He’s a tough, no BS, take on problems head on, people making his day and getting them off his lawn and whatever doesn’t get fixed, well, just shoot it kind of guy.  He walked out and the crowd went wild.  Then he started to speak.  To an empty chair.  Pretending to have a conversation with
Obama.  What people wanted to hear was a rousing speech from a tough
guy.  What people got were the rantings of a confused old man.  So what did the media talk about the next day?  Not Romney’s speech where he outlined his plan, displayed his strategy and explained his mode of attack.  No, the media was talking about Eastwood and his thing with the chair.

Romeny’s speech was actually alright.  Not spectacular but quite honestly, it was better than I and many others were expecting.  It was good enough to pull a 3 to 5 point bounce and if his strategists actually figured out how to run a campaign it could have been his turning point.  That never materialized because the next day all the media could talk about was Eastwood and his chair.  In 2008, McCain pulled up a 5.5 point increase in the polls following the convention.  Granted it didn’t last but it gave his campaign some momentum.  Even Walter Mondale had a bounce in 1984 after that DNC but we all know how that ended.  The graph below shows what sort of bounce each candidate had after their conventions in 2008.  Take this data and compare it to Romney's one point bump:

Before each of the conventions in 2008

After the DNC in 2008 - note a 3.5 point jump for Obama

After the RNC in 2008 - note a 5.5 point jump for McCain from his low after the DNC

Obama should expect a solid bounce after this week and the DNC.  I say
should because the August job numbers are being released this Friday.
If there is an improvement, Obama will see at least a 5 point jump, if
not more.  If the job numbers aren’t good, there will be nothing.  Also, tonight we have Bill Clinton – a man whose popularity transcends party lines it seems lately.  While he’s essentially speaking on behalf of Obama, he’s also looking out for his interests and laying the foundation for Hilary 2016.  This is not to say that he will throw the speech to help his wife. Quite the contrary, he’s 100% behind the President and that will show in the poll numbers come Friday.  Intentions notwithstanding, Clinton will bring in the vote, especially if his message focuses on the economy and takes a “we’re all going to be alright” tone, which quite frankly is his forte.  Obama’s bounce isn’t guaranteed but there’s a good probability for it and if it does happen, it’ll be large.  Sustainable?  That’s a different question.

Romney’s bounce should have been stronger but for the speech of Clint
Eastwood.  The next major potential game-changers are the debates and
those aren’t for a few more weeks however, bounces from those tend to stick. Those will be one of the last good chances that the Romney campaign will have to pull ahead.  Hopefully his campaign people see that too, for his sake.

November 7, 2012: The Start of the 2016 Campaign

No matter what the outcome on November 6, there is only one certainty.  This is Barack Obama’s final campaign.  As the Democrats assemble in Charlotte this week, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that there will be a number of party members that will be laying the seeds for their own campaign four years down the road – a campaign which might start as early as November 7^th. 

There will be some obvious contenders but looking at the Democratic bench, it simply doesn’t have the depth that the Republican one has.  There are no stand-out rising stars which, quite frankly does not bode well for the party in 2016.  There needs to be a nominee, of course and we here at I Need Politics feel that it could be anyone of the following:

Credit:  humanevents.com

Joe Biden:  As the Vice President, he is an obvious choice to run for the nomination.  He’s had Presidential aspirations since 1998 but he has a reputation of acting less than Presidential.  While those that support him love that he speaks from the heart and shoots fro the hip, this will be a liability overall.  Given that he’s already in the White House however, the chances of him securing the nomination are almost a lock.

Credit:  Daily Telegraph (UK)

Hilary Clinton:  Another obvious contender though she has not officially stated that she plans to run in 2016.  Clinton gave Obama a run for his money in 2008 and she was looking as good to win as he was.  She plans to step down as Secretary of State within the next year, which would leave her open to prepare for a 2016 run.  If anyone can take it away from Biden, it’ll be Clinton.

Courtesy:  Baltimore Sun

Martin O’Malley:  Currently the Governor of Maryland and the former Mayor of Baltimore, O’Malley has not been secretive of his Presidential aspirations.  He’s a moderate and a sort of rising star.  Expect him to throw his hat in the ring.

Courtesy:  Wikipedia

Andrew Cuomo:  Succeeding his father Mario at being the Governor of New York, Cuomo is expected to make a run as well.  He was secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Clinton Administration and the Attorney General of New York State.  He comes from a political family, married into the Kennedy’s and is familiar with Washington.

Courtesy:  Politico

Mark Warner:  Currently the junior Senator from Virginia, he is the former Governor of that state.  He’s a moderate Democrat that can have the appearance of a southerner if needed.  He could have some electability on the national stage of he breaks through during the primary season.

Courtesy:  Dallas Morning News

Julian Castro:  This is the closest thing the Democrats have to a Marco Rubio in their party.  He is the young Mayor of San Antonio, TX, a Harvard educated Hispanic lawyer that is incredibly popular there.  What’s going to help Castro’s rising star is that he is giving the Keynote address at the DNC this week – the same slot that Obama had in 2004.  If he knocks it out of the park, his name will be all over the media.  He might not be politically strong enough to slog him through campaign machines like those of Biden or Clinton, but then again, he might if he can nationalize the popularity he has in southern Texas.

This is not to say that these are the only people that can potentially be the Democratic nominee in 2016.  One never knows who can crop up after the election, during the midterms in 2014 or afterwards.  No one really had heard of Bill Clinton in 1989 or of Barack Obama in 2003 and for all anyone knows, some dark horse could emerge that the last moment.  It will be interesting to watch how things unfold, especially who ill begin to position themselves soon after the next election.