Romney Campaign: Don’t Panic But, Maybe, you Should Keep that Resume Updated

So the Romney campaign put a memo out earlier today urging it’s people not to panic, everything is fine and their boys R&R and going to bring it home in November.  Memo’s like these usually signify that the campaign is, in fact, panicking.  The memo:

ROMNEY/RYAN

MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

RE: State of the Race

DATE: September 10, 2012

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling.  While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high 

from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly.  The reality 

of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and 

Mitt Romney will win this race.

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of 

Americans unemployed or underemployed.  But his convention speech was not the only big 

letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week.

The latest CNN / ORC polls show Obama up at 52% over Romney’s 46%.  Obama’s likeability is up to 57%, the highest it’s been in over two years and 59% of Democrats are excited to go vote as opposed to 47% of Republicans (those ‘excitability’ numbers last week were 52% for the Democrats and 62% for the GOP.)

The memo is attributing the polling numbers to a ‘sugar high’ felt by the country after the DNC and that the dismal performance by the President with his speech, as well as a bad jobs report tempered this bump.  So, jobs report was bad (and yes, it was) and his speech wasn’t that good but still Obama leads in the polls has increased by 6 points since the bad speech and the bad job numbers.  Is the bad speech and bad numbers part of the sugar high?  Did people ignore the bad stuff and still get high?  Shouldn’t the bump be significantly lower based on what the memo is saying, or are we just confused? 

A good rule in life is always, if someone tells you not to worry, you should.  If we were Romney campaign staffers, this memo wouldn’t be giving us the warm and fuzzies.  But that’s just us.

Larry Flint: Mitt, Show us Your Tax Returns. Romney: Why Won’t This Go Away?

The illustrious publisher of Hustler Larry Flint (also known as ‘the smut peddler who cares’) is looking to give up to $1 million dollars to one lucky person, and it could be you, if you have information about what Mitt Romney is hiding in his tax returns.   In a full page advertisement taken out in this past Sunday’s Washington Post, Flint and Hustler Magazine are offering money for  “…information about Mitt Romney’s unreleased tax returns and / or details of his offshore assets, bank accounts and business partnerships.  What is he hiding?”

Courtesy:  Washington Post

Romney hasn’t released anything aside from his 2011 and 2010 tax returns and Flint wants to know what he’s got there.  Flint feels that all of this should be public record for a man running for the most public of offices.  Flint will be running the ad again on September 11^th in USA Today. 

This call from Flint comes only a few days after an alleged leak from the Tennessee offices of Romeny’s accountants, Price Waterhouse Cooper.  PwC of course disputes any leak occurred and that Romney’s and everyone else’s records are safe and secure.  RT.com reports that an encrypted file containing Romney’s tax information will be distributed to the media this month.  “The person allegedly in possession of the files… has said that they will provide the material to any source willing to pay $1,000,000,” including the Romney campaign.  The Secret Service has stated that they are in fact investigating the unverified claim of the leak and alleged blackmail.  It seems Flint is willing to pay if the information is good.

While this may turn out to be simply rumor, it remains one more example of how people still don’t feel they know Romney enough.  The fact that he is refusing to show tax returns prior to 2010 makes him look culpable of something in the eyes of America – something that is not helping his cause.  Looking at his poll numbers today, with as much as he has slipped, just the publicity surrounding this escapade could be enough to have him trail Obama even more.  It would behoove Romney to release a bit more information about himself so that people can move on from this issue at least.  If not, this will hang over his head until election day.

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Post-Convention, Who’s Winning? Who Knows.

Round and round she goes, who will win, nobody knows

The convention season is over and neither candidate really has anything to show for it.  Romney got his 1% bounce in the polls but that was short lived as it got cancelled out by Obama’s 3% jump.  That jump was stifled by less than satisfactory jobs report that was released yesterday.  North Carolina, a state that was a Republican lock a few weeks ago now might be leaning Obama.  Ohio, a state that was leaning Obama is now leaning Romney.  After all is said and done neither candidate is any closer to claiming victory then they were three weeks ago.  So what’s a candidate to do?  Hit the campaign trail hard and start getting ready for the debates.

Obama spent yesterday stumping in New Hampshire then Iowa but went to bed last night in Florida.  Romney spent the day in Iowa with both candidates hitting those swing states hard.  The Romney camp has also released a set of ads based off of the conventions targeted at all the swing states but no tangible results from them have shown up in the polling numbers yet.

The debates are going to be crucial.  They are being held in the last few weeks of the campaign and have the opportunity to shape the undecided voters opinion.  Whether it will happen, given how this campaign has gone, is anyone’s guess.  The most probable scenario is that there will be a good number of voters on election day that will decide who to vote for in the voting both and hold their nose as they drop their ballots in the box.  Even Obama’s closest advisors feel that this campaign will go right down to the wire.

Both candidates only have a few more opportunities to get in their final digs.  By just comparing speaking style, Obama should have the debates in the bag but again, the way this campaign has been going, Romney may very well come out on top.  If after the debates the poll numbers come up within 3 points of each other, at that point the only definitive way to know who the winner will be is to wait until election night.

Bill Clinton's Speech at the 2012 DNC

For those of you that missed it last night, here is the full version of Clinton's speech from the 2012 Democratic National Convention.  The speech was brilliant, probably the best that Clinton had ever delivered and took apart the Republican arguments for election one by one while at the same time convincing the American voter how much they needed Obama.  He delivered it in classic Bill fashion, complete with his light southern drawl and 'aw shucks' style.  At the end of it all, it felt more like 'comfort food' for the masses rather than a firebrand political speech and it's exactly what the Obama campaign needed.

Enjoy all 48 minutes of it

So Where's that post-RNC Bounce? Guess it's More of a Roll?

All candidates expect a boost in the polls after their conventions and
based on the latest CNN / ORC poll released yesterday, Romney got his
after the RNC.  He’s polling at 48%... up from 47% before the convention.  A one point bounce that leaves him tied with the Obama campaign as the DNC now gets underway.   So where does that leave Romney with about
two months left in the campaign?  In a bad place. He missed what should have been solid bounce in the polls, and this is the second one he’s missed at that.  Most candidates get a small uptick when they announce their running mate and there wasn’t one when Ryan was introduced.  So what happened?  Frankly it’s the perpetual problem that the Romney campaign has had over and over again, their message doesn’t seem to want to stick.  Not that it’s a bad message but it keeps getting overshadowed by one thing or another.  The culprit this time?  Clint Eastwood.

Of all the speakers at the RNC, Romney was preceded most notably by Dirty Harry himself.  This man is the personification of America – or at least that perception.  He’s a tough, no BS, take on problems head on, people making his day and getting them off his lawn and whatever doesn’t get fixed, well, just shoot it kind of guy.  He walked out and the crowd went wild.  Then he started to speak.  To an empty chair.  Pretending to have a conversation with
Obama.  What people wanted to hear was a rousing speech from a tough
guy.  What people got were the rantings of a confused old man.  So what did the media talk about the next day?  Not Romney’s speech where he outlined his plan, displayed his strategy and explained his mode of attack.  No, the media was talking about Eastwood and his thing with the chair.

Romeny’s speech was actually alright.  Not spectacular but quite honestly, it was better than I and many others were expecting.  It was good enough to pull a 3 to 5 point bounce and if his strategists actually figured out how to run a campaign it could have been his turning point.  That never materialized because the next day all the media could talk about was Eastwood and his chair.  In 2008, McCain pulled up a 5.5 point increase in the polls following the convention.  Granted it didn’t last but it gave his campaign some momentum.  Even Walter Mondale had a bounce in 1984 after that DNC but we all know how that ended.  The graph below shows what sort of bounce each candidate had after their conventions in 2008.  Take this data and compare it to Romney's one point bump:

Before each of the conventions in 2008

After the DNC in 2008 - note a 3.5 point jump for Obama

After the RNC in 2008 - note a 5.5 point jump for McCain from his low after the DNC

Obama should expect a solid bounce after this week and the DNC.  I say
should because the August job numbers are being released this Friday.
If there is an improvement, Obama will see at least a 5 point jump, if
not more.  If the job numbers aren’t good, there will be nothing.  Also, tonight we have Bill Clinton – a man whose popularity transcends party lines it seems lately.  While he’s essentially speaking on behalf of Obama, he’s also looking out for his interests and laying the foundation for Hilary 2016.  This is not to say that he will throw the speech to help his wife. Quite the contrary, he’s 100% behind the President and that will show in the poll numbers come Friday.  Intentions notwithstanding, Clinton will bring in the vote, especially if his message focuses on the economy and takes a “we’re all going to be alright” tone, which quite frankly is his forte.  Obama’s bounce isn’t guaranteed but there’s a good probability for it and if it does happen, it’ll be large.  Sustainable?  That’s a different question.

Romney’s bounce should have been stronger but for the speech of Clint
Eastwood.  The next major potential game-changers are the debates and
those aren’t for a few more weeks however, bounces from those tend to stick. Those will be one of the last good chances that the Romney campaign will have to pull ahead.  Hopefully his campaign people see that too, for his sake.

A Not-So-Sneak-Peek Into Tonight Acceptance Speech

Go Get 'em Tiger!

The Romney campaign put out some advanced excerpts of Romney’s speech in a couple of hours (courtesy:  Politico) and they include a message of unity, outline of some plans and a discussion of the last four years.

Ending the Disappointment:  "Today the time has come for us to put the disappointments of the last four years behind us," Romney plans to say tonight. "To put aside the divisiveness and the recriminations. To forget about what might have been and to look ahead to what can be. Now is the time to restore the Promise of America.”

Warning of a Dimmer Future:  "To the majority of Americans who now believe that the future will not be better than the past, I can guarantee you this: if Barack Obama is re-elected, you will be right. I am running for president to help create a better future. A future where everyone who wants a job can find one. Where no senior fears for the security of their retirement. An America where every parent knows that their child will get an education that leads them to a good job and a bright horizon."

Outlining a 5 Point PLan to Create 12 Million Jobs: "First, by 2020, North America will be energy independent.  Second, we will give our fellow citizens the skills they need for the jobs of today and the careers of tomorrow. Third, we will make trade work for America by forging new trade agreements. And when nations cheat in trade, there will be unmistakable consequences. Fourth, to assure every entrepreneur and every job creator that their investments in America will not vanish as have those in Greece. And fifth, we will champion SMALL businesses, America's engine of job growth. 

Romney will go on to recount the ‘lost’ hope of 2008 and how he wished that Obama had succeeded (because he wants American to succeed),  He will then go into introducing himself to the country (again) and reiterating his love for his wife and family and his ties to the community.  These are the points that he will have no problem delivering.  It’s the next few that might prove to be a bit dicey for him:

Appealing to Women Voters (and trying to undo the damage done by Akin and others like him).  “When my mom ran for the Senate, my dad was there for her every step of the way. I can still hear her saying in her beautiful voice, 'Why should women have any less say than men, about the great decisions facing our nation?' 

Explaining his Business Background:  He describes how he had a hand in building some of America’s biggest companies like Staples and Sports Authority.  He doesn’t describe the decisions he also made that put thousands of Americans out of work.

Talking About the Tough Times:  He tries to relate with middle class America here and how hope and change never materialized.  Hard to do when you’re a millionaire son of another millionaire and Governor.

Romney plans to close his speech with a vision of the future:  "That America, that united America, can unleash an economy that will put Americans back to work, that will once again lead the world with innovation and productivity, and that will restore every father and mother's confidence that their children's future is brighter even than the past. That America, that united America, will preserve a military that is so strong, no nation would ever dare to test it. That America, that united America, will uphold the constellation of rights that were endowed by our Creator, and codified in our constitution. That united America will care for the poor and the sick, will honor and respect the elderly, and will give a helping hand to those in need. That America is the best within each of us. That America we want for our children. If I am elected President of these United States, I will work with all my energy and soul to restore that America, to lift our eyes to a better future. That future is our destiny. That future is out there. It is waiting for us. Our children deserve it, our nation depends upon it, the peace and freedom of the world require it. And with your help we will deliver it. Let us begin that future together tonight."

All in all it seems like it will be a good speech.  Will it rouse like others in the past?  Hard to say.  The problem I see is the same one that has been plaguing this campaign since day 1; they can’t seem to control the message.  While a good part of this speech should come across very well, there is another good part of it that will leave the Obama Campaign a lot of opportunity to pick apart.  

Tonight Romney not only needs to present himself to America (in probably one of the most important speeches of his life) but he needs to take this opportunity and finally seize the message away from the Obama camp and make is image his own.  Only this way does he even have a remote chance of winning.

The New Face of the GOP doesn’t Necessarily Include Romney… But it does Reagan?

What's Old is New Again

Jonathan Martin writes that when asking the rising stars of the GOP about their party’s future two names come up, neither of which is Mitt Romney.   One of them, Ronald Reagan, was born in 1911 and the other, Paul Ryan, was born in 1970.  “Neither Romney, born in 1947 or the once politically ascendant baby boomers he represents are central to the conversation about what direction the party takes in the years ahead.”  This relegates Romney to the status of a placeholder in the party.  He’s not heralding some sort of new political movement nor is he taking the party in any sort of radical direction.  Mitt Romney just… is.

As the next generations of leaders look at the status of the GOP, they see George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism as so 2000’s.  Re-embracing a republican platform based on core conservative values is what the view is now.  Reagan’s conservative philosophy, like that old-time religion is sweeping the up-and-comers.  The free-market orthodoxy that is being preached by Ryan is fast becoming the (old) new gospel.  Politicians like Marco Rubio are at the forefront of this change.  “Sometimes we may think that we are being compassionate by creating a new program or agency but in fact we are getting in the way” Rubio stated. 

Reagan, obviously not a member of Generation X, has become a sort of messiah to this next group of leaders.  His no-nonsense ‘pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps’ fiscal conservatism appeals to a group of people that came of age during the hard times of the early 1990’s and the even harder times of the mid to late 2000’s.  They saw their party split between moderates and ultra-conservatives, the saw Bush the II diminish their party and philosophies like Newt Gingrich’s ‘Contract with America’ as passé.  I bet that Reagan himself would never have guessed his name would have been the battle cry for a revolution within the GOP some 30 years after his Presidency.

At the end of it all, by tapping Ryan as his running-mate, Romney is the one that, probably unwittingly, put this revolution into motion.  “Romney… hastened the transition to the new guard and may have ensured that his own legacy draws from his ticketmates ideas” states Martin.  By doing this, win or lose, Paul Ryan will come out leading this party.  Ryan could be the first ‘New Republican’ which would make Mitt Romney, again unwittingly, the father of the ‘New Republicans’ by being the one that foisted the potentially new standard bearer into public view. 

Given all of this, the best thing that could happen to the GOP would be an Obama second term.  By losing, the GOP could clear out what’s left of the old guard and make room for what comes next, the Ryan’s, the Rubio’s, the Christie’s and the like.  Romney, unfortunately for him, brought his party to the edge of the Promised Land but he could lead them in.  I guess he angered someone… maybe Pat Robertson?

Romney: I Think I'm a Birther Now. Obama Campaign: Woo Hoo

Fine, Mitt wasn’t that crass with his statement earlier today in Michigan but saying to this crowd that he was born right there and no one has asked him for a birth certificate to prove it pretty much made
him a birther today.  This issue, so far as I remember was settled over a year ago and the only ones that are holding on to are part of a fringe.  I don’t want to call Romney a fringe candidate but… seriously.  The Romney campaign says that Mitt was making a joke and obviously the Obama campaign isn’t laughing, though they should be because this is yet one more mis-step this campaign has taken.  We were making fun of the Vice President last week but this isn’t that far off.

The point of the trip to Michigan was for Romney to lay out his economic policies and re-acquaint himself with the voters.  You have to agree that the Romney campaign has had a disastrous summer, from a
horrific trip overseas all the way up to the Akin controversy; it’s been one problem after another.  This was supposed to resolve itself by the convention – well that starts in 48 hours and here we are,
Romney jokingly wondering about where the President was born.

The law itself I personally find asinine.  I feel that you should be eligible to be the President if you are a US Citizen, either by birth or by choice.  I understand the Founding Fathers intentions in putting
that stipulation in the Constitution; fearing a foreign born leader that may have allegiances to a foreign King.  These days, with the huge foreign born population in this country, many of those people dying just to be a part of this country, I do not believe that this is really an issue anymore.  It is simply an outdated hang-on from a much
earlier era (not unlike the right to bear arms).  Those are debates for a different day though.

Opinions of laws notwithstanding, the Romney campaign screwed up again – and this time it was Romney himself.  Even if he was making a joke, this joke not only potentially re-ignited a debate that was put to
rest many months ago and makes him look fairly foolish, it detracts away from the message that he was trying to convey.  He’s not going into the convention with the media discussing his economic plan, he’s
going in with talk about birtherism.  

An interesting tidbit about the whole thing; back in 1968 a Gov. George Romney was running against Richard Nixon for the nomination.  The campaign was short lived because the then Gov. Romney was actually born in Mexico and thus disqualified from the White House. This didn't stop the Governor from trying to run, thus creating probably the first 'birther' controversy.  This Governor, in case you haven't gleaned it, was Mitt Romney's dad.

Dubya: Mitt, Lemme Endorse You. Romney: Yeah, Well, Um...

You know, Presidential endorsements are funny things.  Candidates clamor over the opportunity, usually.  When especially popular former President stands behind a candidate, that usually carries a good amount of weight  Former President Bill Clinton is coming out with a TV spot that will air in 8 swing states starting next week with a message that basically says hey, vote for Barack, he’s got policies like I did and if he can put them into play, we’ll all be alright.  I’m not saying that this is a true statement or not but what is true is that under Clinton, this country prospered.  Monica Lewinsky and other such scandals aside, under Clinton, we did great.  Most people in the county recognize this sot an endorsement from Clinton is actually helpful to Obama.  President Clinton seems to have undertaken the role of ‘senior stateman’ of sorts.  The commercial gives that weary yet confident look that says, I’ve done this and you’ve liked what I’ve done, now like my guy.

On the Republican side, the only living Presidents that can provide such endorsements all have the last name of Bush.  Even if Romney thought about it, it should have been merely a few second afterthought.  Can you imagine seeing a spot with Dubya saying something like, hey y’all, Romney’s like me, he’ll do the country right by following the same policies I would of, now vote for him.  Given the legacy that George the second carries, I don’t see how that could possible help the Romney campaign in any possible way.  For that reason, you will not see one commercial featuring, reminiscing of, thinking about or even mentioning any of the Bush’s.  Not because the Bush’s don’t support Romney - mostly because Romney doesn’t want to show American’s like he’d be a lot like Bush.

85 Days Before the Election and Lubbock Prepares for War

Remember the Alamo, er... the Buddy Holly Memorial

So Texas County Judge (I guess the equivalent of a County Mayor in

other parts of the country) said today that if Obama wins a second

term, there will be civil war.  He’s gone as far as to enlist the county sheriff to pull together a trained force to ward off the United Nations troops that will be unleashed.  No, this is not an Onion article – this man is apparently serious.

On a talk show out of Lubbock, Judge Tom Head said “regardless of whether the Republicans take over the Senate, which I hope they do, he [President Obama] is going to make the United States Congress and he’s going to make the constitution irrelevant.  He’s got czars in place that don’t answer to

nobody.”  He went on to say that Obama will “try to give sovereignty of the United States away to the United Nations.  What do you think the public is going to do when that happens?  We’re talking civil unrest, civil disobedience, possible civil war.  I’m not talking riots here and there, I’m talking Lexington, Concord, take up arms, get rid of the dictator… he’s going to call in the UN troops, personnel carriers, tanks, and whatever.”  Head went on talking about raising a

militia, standing personally in front of tanks and what have you.  When asked, the Sheriff seemed to have no idea what he was talking about and stated that they had had a discussion about Emergency Management matters and nothing about preparing for a civil war.

The Judge did backtrack somewhat on his comments, stating that they were misunderstood and that he was referring to issues of taxation.  The Judge was unreachable for furthe comment and his office stated that he would be unreachable for at least 1 to 2 more days.

* With quotes from CNN